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一周钢市分析(10.29-11.2):黑色期货离奇大跌 现货板材弱势显现 11月钢市”凶多吉少”?
发布时间:2018-11-03来源:山东ag游戏网金属材料作者:山东ag游戏网金属材料点击:

竞彩唯一漏洞BENZHOU(10.29-11.2)HEISEXIQIHUOQIANGSHIBUZAI,GANGCAI、YUANRANLIAOQIHUOLUNFANLINGDIE,YOUQIREJUANQIHUOBIAOXIANJIAOCHA,TUOLEIXIANHUOSHICHANGBANCAIJIAGEXIADIE,JIANZHUGANGCAIXIANHUOJIAGEZEXIANGDUIJIANTING。

乐从钢铁世界网现货价格指数

竞彩唯一漏洞JIEZHIBENZHOUWU11YUE2RI,REMENPINZHONGZHONGDELENGPINGBAN1.0MM、REPINGBAN5.75MMFENBIEJIAOSHANGZHOUTONGQIDAFUXIADIE90YUAN/DUNHE120YUAN/DUN;XINGCAIBIAOXIANXIANGDUIJIAOWEN,CAOGANG10#BAOJIAJIAOSHANGZHOUWUBAOCHIPINGWEN,HXINGGANG300*300MMXIAOZHANG20YUAN,JUTIJIAGEBIANHUAQINGKUANGJIANXIABIAO。

黑色系商品期货

BENZHOUHEISEXISHANGPINQIHUOLIQIDADIE,QIZHONGREJUANQIHUOYIZHOUXIALAIDIEJIN200DAYUAN,TIEKUANGSHIZHOUDIEFUCHAO5%LINGDIEHEISEXI,LUOWENGANGDIEJIN4%,JIAOTAN、JIAOMEIFENFENDIEYU3%。XIANGJIANXIABIAO。

竞彩唯一漏洞8YUEXIAXUNYILAI,REJUANQIHUOPITAIJINXIAN,9YUEZONGTIZHENDANGXIAXING,10YUEQUJIANZHENDANGPANZHENG,BENZHOUZAIDUFANGLIANGDADIE。

竞彩唯一漏洞REJUAN1901ZHULIHEYUERIXIANZOUSHITU

钢铁世界地磅过磅指数

BENZHOUYIZHIWU,GANGTIESHIJIEDIBANGGUOBANGZHISHUJUNZHILUDE104.2DIAN,YUANQUCHUHUOLIANGBAOCHIGUOBAIGAOWEI。

全国钢材社会库存

竞彩唯一漏洞JUXIBENXINGANXIANJIANCESHUJUXIANSHI,JIEZHIBENZHOUWU,QUANGUOZHUYAOGANGCAIPINZHONGKUCUNZONGLIANGWEI946.78WANDUN,XIAJIANG41.11WANDUN,JIANGFU4.16%,LIANXULIANGZHOUKUCUNJIANGFUCHAO4%,FANYINGXIAYOUYONGGANGXIAOHAOMINGXIAN。

竞彩唯一漏洞ZHITU:GANGTIESHIJIEWANG SHUJULAIYUAN:XIBENXINGANXIAN

原材料行情

本周国内原料价格表现不一,其中焦炭价格部分提涨,进口矿价格接连下跌,国内矿价格以稳为主,废钢价格多数上涨,钢坯行情涨跌互现。

钢坯:

竞彩唯一漏洞BENZHOUGUONEIGANGPIJIAGEZHANGDIEHUXIAN,JIEZHIBENZHOUWU,TANGSHANSHICHANGPUTANFANGPICHUCHANGJIAGEJIANGZHI3950YUAN/DUN,JIAOSHANGZHOUWUXIADIE50YUAN/DUN。

铁矿石:

JINKOUKUANGSHICHANGXIAOFUXIADIE。JIEZHIZHOUSI,PUSHI62%FENKUANGJIAGEZAI74.55MEIYUAN/DUN(CFR),JIAOSHANGZHOUWUHUILUO2.45MEIYUAN/DUN。GANGKOUKUCUNLAIKAN,JIEZHIBENZHOUWU,QUANGUOZHUYAOGANGKOUJINKOUTIEKUANGSHIKUCUNYUE14360WANDUN,ZHOUHUANBIXIAJIANG160WANDUN。

BENZHOUGUONEITIEJINGFENJIAGEWEICHIJIANTING,TANGSHANDIQUTIEJINGFENJIXUBAO750YUAN/DUNHANSHUI。

焦炭、焦煤:

本周国内焦炭市场起动第三轮涨价,山东、河北山西地区焦企普遍提涨100元左右,现山西地区二级冶金焦出厂价格已升至2400元/吨左右,河北和山东地区二级冶金焦出厂价格在2550元/吨左右。

竞彩唯一漏洞BENZHOUGUONEILIANJIAOMEISHICHANGWENZHONGQUZHANG。SHANXILIULINDIQUZHUJIAOMEICHUCHANGJIAGEBAOCHI1480-1530YUAN/DUN,ZHANGZHIDIQUPINSHOUMEIJIAGEZAI1100-1140YUAN/DUN;HEBEITANGSHANZHUJIAOMEI、FEIMEIZHULIUJIAGEBAOCHIZAI1450-1500YUAN/DUN。

废钢:

竞彩唯一漏洞SHANGZHOUQUANGUOFEIGANGSHICHANGPUBIANSHANGZHANG30-80YUAN/DUN,BENZHOUFEIGANGJIAGEYANXUSHANGZHANGTAISHI,HUADONGDIQUFEIGANGJIAGELAZHANG20-50YUAN/DUN,HUABEI、XINANHEHUANANDENGDIQUFEIGANGJUNSHANGZHANG20-30YUAN/DUN。JIEZHIBENZHOUWU,JIANGZHESHICHANGZHONGFEIZHULIUJIAGEBAOCHI2710-2760YUAN/DUN;LIANGHU、LIANGGUANGDIQUZHONGFEIZHULIUJIAGEBAOCHI2750-2800YUAN/DUN;HEBEI、SHANXISHICHANGZHONGFEIJIAGEDADAO2690-2720YUAN/DUN;DONGBEISHICHANGZHONGFEIZHULIUJIAGEBAOCHI2750-2780YUAN/DUN。

钢铁行业宏观数据:

竞彩唯一漏洞【PMI】10YUEFENGANGTIELIUTONGYEPMIZONGZHISHUWEI49.7% HUANBIHUILUO0.3GEBAIFENDIAN

【CUGANGXUNCHAN】10YUEZHONGXUNZHONGDIANGANGQICUGANGRICHAN195.11WANDUN HUANBIXIAJIANG1.83%

【GANGCHANGKUCUN】10YUEZHONGXUNZHONGDIANGANGQIGANGCAIKUCUNLIANG1290.89WANDUN HUANBISHANGSHENG2.29%

竞彩唯一漏洞【GANGTIELIRUN】1-9YUEZHONGDIANGANGTIEQIYESHIXIANLIRUNZONGE2299.63YIYUAN TONGBIZENGZHANG86.01%

本周钢铁行业焦点消息:

1、GUOJIATONGJIJU:QIANSANJIDUGANGTIEXINGYELIRUNZENGZHANG71.1%

YIJIDU,GUIMOYISHANGGONGYEQIYELIRUNZENGZHANG11.6%,SHANGBANNIANZENGZHANG17.2%,QIANSANJIDUZENGZHANG14.7%,ZONGTIBAOCHIJIAOKUAIZENGZHANG。QIANSANJIDU,GONGYEQIYEZHUYINGYEWUSHOURULIRUNLVWEI6.44%,TONGBITIGAO0.29GEBAIFENDIAN。QIANSANJIDU,GANGTIEXINGYELIRUNZENGZHANG71.1%,JIANCAIXINGYEZENGZHANG44.9%,SHIYOUKAICAIXINGYEZENGZHANG4BEI,SHIYOUJIAGONGXINGYEZENGZHANG30.8%,HUAGONGXINGYEZENGZHANG24.5%。5GEXINGYEHEJIDUIGUIMOYISHANGGONGYEQIYELIRUNZENGZHANGDEGONGXIANLVWEI72.4%。

2、HUADONGDIQUSHAGANG、YONGGANGXIANGJIFABU11YUEFENXIANCHANFANGAN。

BENZHOUSHAGANG11YUEFENXIANCHANXIJIECHUTAI:JIHUA3ZUO480LIFANGGAOLU,2ZUO580LIFANGGAOLU11YUE1RI-11YUE15RITINGCHAN,YUJIYINGXIANGTIESHUICHANLIANG11WANDUN,DANGANGCHANGQIANQIWAICAIPILIAOCHONGZU,11YUEFENZHENGTICHENGCAICHANLIANGBUSHOUYINGXIANG。YONGGANGXIANCHANFANGANWEI:11YUE1RI-11YUE30RI,JIHUA3ZUO500LIFANGMIDEGAOLUTINGCHAN;11YUE1RI-11YUE18RI,1ZUO1080GAOLUTINGCHAN;YUJIYINGXIANGTIESHUICHANLIANG18WANDUN。QIZHONG,XIANCAIERCHEJIAN11YUE1RI-11YUE15RITING15TIAN;BANGERCHEJIAN11YUE1RI-12YUE15RITING45TIAN,YUJIGONGJIYINGXIANGCHENGCAILIANG16WANDUNZUOYOU。

3、XINHUASHE:WOGUOGANGTIEXINGYEGUOSHANG"DUONIANMEIYOUDE'HAORIZI'"

竞彩唯一漏洞"JINNIANGANGTIEXINGYEGUOSHANGDUONIANMEIYOUDE'HAORIZI'。"ZHONGGUOGANGTIEGONGYEXIEHUIMISHUZHANGLIUZHENJIANGZAI31RIJUXINGDEXINXIFABUHUISHANGBIAOSHI,DEYIYUGONGJICEJIEGOUXINGGAIGE,QIANSANJIDUWOGUOGANGTIEQIYEXIAOYICHIXUHAOZHUAN,XINGYEYUNXINGQUDEQIANSUOWEIYOUDEPINGWENTAISHI。SHUJUXIANSHI,1ZHI9YUEFEN,ZHONGGANGXIEHUIYUANGANGTIEQIYESHIXIANLIRUNYIJINGCHAOGUOLE2017NIANQUANNIANLIRUNZONGE,TONGBIZENGZHANG86.01%,NIUZHUANLEDUONIANLAIWEILISHENZHIKUISUNDEJUMIAN,CHUANGXIASHISHANGZUIHAOYEJI。

点评与后市展望:

尽管市场对于11月钢市需求走弱早有心里准备,但本周期货价格跌幅依然超出预期。实际上,本周国内钢市基本面变化并不大,甚至是向好发展,如10月中旬重点钢企粗钢日产量迎来回落、钢材社会库存总量继续保持4%以上的降幅,以及宏观方面的中美贸易紧张关系得到缓解,A股市场反弹等等。编者认为期货市场大跌存在资金面故意做空期价的动机,如11月1日,热卷期货最低下探至3655元/吨,刷新近半年内低位,当日热卷期货持仓量暴增10.6万手,当然目前钢市呈现明显的"长强板弱"态势亦是投资者选择做空的理由之一。

展望11月后市,钢价"长强板弱"这种局面仍将延续,甚至可能延续相当长的时间;后期需要关注各地环保限产政策的执行落实情况,还特别需要关注北材南下的情况;据了解,11月北方钢厂大幅提高了向华东、华南地区资源分流的量,增幅超过50%,预计将对南方钢价形成打压态势。


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